A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
